The recent surge in immigration made the household survey especially hard to interpret, but if historical data were revised, we’d see that the labor force has grown smoothly and steadily
Awesome article! My fear at this point is that within a year or so that the monthly jobs report and other government reports will no longer reflect reality. I think there will be a replacement of personnel in each department with people who have proved their loyalty to Trump in order to be hired. Then I believe each department will have their monthly numbers reviewed by the White House (or, at least, a director loyal to the administration) before publication. Similar to Florida requiring all counties to send health data to Tallahassee and the numbers released from there, which amazingly showed fewer Covid deaths than other states though a spike in pneumonia deaths. It will be like assuming that the official numbers from the Kremlin actually reflect reality. One result will be that if Jed decides to write a similar report next year, where will he get his data from?
The headline job creation number comes from the payroll survey, which gets a different revision than the household survey. Most of the action in the payroll survey revision will be revising previous numbers lower. These revisions and adjustments don't really impact the Dec 24 - to - Jan 25 headline jobs number, which economists expect to be around 168 thousand: https://us.econoday.com/byevent?fid=636596&year=2025&lid=0#top
Top tier post, thanks Jed & crew. Quick question: are the estimates of household employment revisions for the unadjusted or adjusted definition (which is closer to payroll employment)?
Unadjusted. I did not do the payroll-concept adjustment. But I assume the adjusted measure will jump similarly, bringing it closer to the payrolls level (in Dec 2024, unadjusted HH > payroll > adjusted HH, which I assume you know since you asked that question)
Awesome article! My fear at this point is that within a year or so that the monthly jobs report and other government reports will no longer reflect reality. I think there will be a replacement of personnel in each department with people who have proved their loyalty to Trump in order to be hired. Then I believe each department will have their monthly numbers reviewed by the White House (or, at least, a director loyal to the administration) before publication. Similar to Florida requiring all counties to send health data to Tallahassee and the numbers released from there, which amazingly showed fewer Covid deaths than other states though a spike in pneumonia deaths. It will be like assuming that the official numbers from the Kremlin actually reflect reality. One result will be that if Jed decides to write a similar report next year, where will he get his data from?
Assuming there is a report, what, if anything, might this do to the headline number of jobs created last month?
The headline job creation number comes from the payroll survey, which gets a different revision than the household survey. Most of the action in the payroll survey revision will be revising previous numbers lower. These revisions and adjustments don't really impact the Dec 24 - to - Jan 25 headline jobs number, which economists expect to be around 168 thousand: https://us.econoday.com/byevent?fid=636596&year=2025&lid=0#top
Top tier post, thanks Jed & crew. Quick question: are the estimates of household employment revisions for the unadjusted or adjusted definition (which is closer to payroll employment)?
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm
Unadjusted. I did not do the payroll-concept adjustment. But I assume the adjusted measure will jump similarly, bringing it closer to the payrolls level (in Dec 2024, unadjusted HH > payroll > adjusted HH, which I assume you know since you asked that question)
Thanks! Just trying to reconcile with my own (way less sophisticated) guesses.
With the Census Bureau currently under attack by his horror and crew, will relying on future reports and surveys, if there are any, be worthwhile?