Data sources vary, but the most relevant data source suggests that highway spending, adjusted for inflation, declined. If true, we should rethink federal infrastructure funding in times of distress.
Hey Zachary—first of all, great work in this piece! I have really been enjoying the back-and-forth between Jason, Ernie, Eric, and you on this issue. I tend to lean towards the view that BIF managed to cause an increase in real roadway spending relative to counterfactuals, but trust the BEA numbers most and so think we hadn't exceed 2019 construction activity by 2023 and will only achieve that in 2024.
One thing that I haven't heard anyone discuss is the employment figures*—roadway construction employment is up 23k, or ~6%, from 2019 levels to new record highs, which is part of the reason I think investment likely increased. Curious to see what your take on this is?
Hey Zachary—first of all, great work in this piece! I have really been enjoying the back-and-forth between Jason, Ernie, Eric, and you on this issue. I tend to lean towards the view that BIF managed to cause an increase in real roadway spending relative to counterfactuals, but trust the BEA numbers most and so think we hadn't exceed 2019 construction activity by 2023 and will only achieve that in 2024.
One thing that I haven't heard anyone discuss is the employment figures*—roadway construction employment is up 23k, or ~6%, from 2019 levels to new record highs, which is part of the reason I think investment likely increased. Curious to see what your take on this is?
https://data.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/CES2023730001;jsessionid=6D47E2FDC9FCA799429F8D7B25017C7E