Lots of great info in this article about the history of the Index of Consumer Sentiment. I learned a lot. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) data shows the extent of the no-recession vibecession in 2021-22. Steep plunge in ICS as inflation rose. 2021-22 vibecession ICS readings not affected by recent change in survey methodology.
Adjustment to recent ICS readings by Cummings and Tedeschi shows that vibecovery since 2021-22 vibecession stalled this year, but vibes have not slipped backwards. No sign of another vibecession. That said, vibecovery has been relatively weak. ICS not yet back to previous peak of summer 2021. In my opinion, relatively weak economic vibes go a long way to explaining why Harris campaign is struggling.
Great stuff! I do worry that correcting this mode bias with an intercept shift, especially if UMich restates the past several months of data, would be conspiracy theory fodder. (“Rigging the data”, etc)
Interesting stuff guys. In New Zealand we have the Westpac-McDermott Miller consumer confidence survey, which is modeled on the questions from the UofM survey. When we shifted from phone to online polling in 2019, there was no clear impact on the overall index, though there were some notable level shifts in some components. The most obvious impact was on a question about job availability - the phone-based poll had become increasingly skewed towards people who weren't in the workforce for one reason or another.
Lots of great info in this article about the history of the Index of Consumer Sentiment. I learned a lot. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) data shows the extent of the no-recession vibecession in 2021-22. Steep plunge in ICS as inflation rose. 2021-22 vibecession ICS readings not affected by recent change in survey methodology.
Adjustment to recent ICS readings by Cummings and Tedeschi shows that vibecovery since 2021-22 vibecession stalled this year, but vibes have not slipped backwards. No sign of another vibecession. That said, vibecovery has been relatively weak. ICS not yet back to previous peak of summer 2021. In my opinion, relatively weak economic vibes go a long way to explaining why Harris campaign is struggling.
Great stuff! I do worry that correcting this mode bias with an intercept shift, especially if UMich restates the past several months of data, would be conspiracy theory fodder. (“Rigging the data”, etc)
Interesting stuff guys. In New Zealand we have the Westpac-McDermott Miller consumer confidence survey, which is modeled on the questions from the UofM survey. When we shifted from phone to online polling in 2019, there was no clear impact on the overall index, though there were some notable level shifts in some components. The most obvious impact was on a question about job availability - the phone-based poll had become increasingly skewed towards people who weren't in the workforce for one reason or another.
Wow, fantastic post. Not as much of a vibecession as we thought. Great work.