It is not surprising to me that a rise in gas prices above 3.5 (which is probably near the expected price to pay for gas at the national level over most of this period) gets attention - I bet the authors will get the same type of kink if they focus on shorter (but not too short - like 5 years+) chunks of the data and look how the kink behaves around the national 5-year average gas price.
Regardless, the lack of coverage of positive news is quite interesting. Is the Fox news kink more pronounced when a Democrat is in the office? How about MSNBC when a Republican is in the office? Would be super interesting to know.
But why doesn't the break point change over time as the value of the dollar changes? When you factor in inflation, we're freaking out now about gas prices at $2.50 instead of $3.50, because $3.50 today would have only bought $2.50 in goods back in 2004.
Different media, but classic case of accentuating the negative today May 15. US inflation fell 0.1 point to 3.4%. Fox Business headline: "Inflation increases 3.4% in April as prices remain elevated". No one would have read accurately worded headline: "Prices increase 3.4% over year to April".
Wonderful work here, would it be possible to get that first scatter-plot without the lines and inflection point marked? Or even just an excel sheet with the raw data? I'm an Algebra teacher always on the lookout for examples where mathematical model-building could be useful. I'd like to see if my students would come up with those two lines and identify the inflection point, and properly interpret what the slope of the line means in context.
Darn, I came here looking for a more causal link, rather than charts of media coverage. Is there some seminal work linking gas prices to inflation expectations in the US? I am curious about how much is explained by gas prices and then by media coverage of gas prices.
Side note: When I drive around with my dad (80), I am looking at people, housing stock and businesses. He is laser focus on gas prices. "Hey, Chris, did you see that $3.39 for regular, we gotta come back." We are usually half way accross town.
Amazing work and powerful findings! Congratulations for the mention in the FT as well.
It is not surprising to me that a rise in gas prices above 3.5 (which is probably near the expected price to pay for gas at the national level over most of this period) gets attention - I bet the authors will get the same type of kink if they focus on shorter (but not too short - like 5 years+) chunks of the data and look how the kink behaves around the national 5-year average gas price.
Regardless, the lack of coverage of positive news is quite interesting. Is the Fox news kink more pronounced when a Democrat is in the office? How about MSNBC when a Republican is in the office? Would be super interesting to know.
But why doesn't the break point change over time as the value of the dollar changes? When you factor in inflation, we're freaking out now about gas prices at $2.50 instead of $3.50, because $3.50 today would have only bought $2.50 in goods back in 2004.
Different media, but classic case of accentuating the negative today May 15. US inflation fell 0.1 point to 3.4%. Fox Business headline: "Inflation increases 3.4% in April as prices remain elevated". No one would have read accurately worded headline: "Prices increase 3.4% over year to April".
Wonderful work here, would it be possible to get that first scatter-plot without the lines and inflection point marked? Or even just an excel sheet with the raw data? I'm an Algebra teacher always on the lookout for examples where mathematical model-building could be useful. I'd like to see if my students would come up with those two lines and identify the inflection point, and properly interpret what the slope of the line means in context.
Sure! Please email me at my @stanford address.
Darn, I came here looking for a more causal link, rather than charts of media coverage. Is there some seminal work linking gas prices to inflation expectations in the US? I am curious about how much is explained by gas prices and then by media coverage of gas prices.
Side note: When I drive around with my dad (80), I am looking at people, housing stock and businesses. He is laser focus on gas prices. "Hey, Chris, did you see that $3.39 for regular, we gotta come back." We are usually half way accross town.